Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.316414 3.587591 3.895926 4.278958 4.752079 5.332568 6.126329
2025-02-16 2.971559 3.318092 3.742363 4.321019 5.130228 6.304071 8.363553
2025-02-23 2.697230 3.058968 3.518765 4.178536 5.172132 6.787615 10.287070
2025-03-02 2.552749 2.935147 3.437919 4.194858 5.423699 7.697484 14.363663
2025-03-09 2.431691 2.824728 3.354921 4.184041 5.618011 8.616306 21.672298
2025-03-16 2.309278 2.699803 3.235261 4.093680 5.644296 9.201089 33.465049
2025-03-23 2.256022 2.663013 3.235006 4.188297 6.038078 11.077092 NaN
2025-03-30 2.151751 2.547506 3.108024 4.053889 5.933793 11.394573 NaN
2025-04-06 2.055077 2.437241 2.980944 3.905143 5.768407 11.402627 NaN
2025-04-13 1.981445 2.355826 2.891964 3.813163 5.710627 11.822761 NaN
2025-04-20 1.954919 2.339683 2.900360 3.892106 6.061266 14.595086 NaN
2025-04-27 1.951242 2.355673 2.958844 4.069294 6.722738 22.111439 NaN
2025-05-04 1.911406 2.318518 2.933488 4.091605 7.010964 30.663318 NaN
2025-05-11 1.877124 2.287978 2.916828 4.129711 7.374119 54.543082 NaN
2025-05-18 1.815112 2.213050 2.822625 4.000084 7.161756 55.627812 NaN
2025-05-25 1.783329 2.182334 2.799760 4.014956 7.442341 199.521948 NaN
2025-06-01 1.749582 2.147087 2.767001 4.005100 7.639684 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.705953 2.095112 2.703268 3.922670 7.541928 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.692722 2.089035 2.716842 4.008978 8.147346 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.647328 2.031722 2.639569 3.886314 7.838157 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.601612 1.972897 2.557994 3.750094 7.454806 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.565990 1.928925 2.500785 3.665614 7.282822 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.556928 1.925705 2.513523 3.738132 7.809123 NaN NaN